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Energy drives downside inflation surprise

  • The small downside surprise for Swedish July inflation looks to be driven by energy - with CPIF ex energy printing in line with expectations at 8.0%Y/Y and 0.4%M/M but the inc energy measure a tenth lower than expected Y/Y (remaining at 6.4%Y/Y) and fell -0.2%M/M (expected flat).
  • At first glance there's little on the headline side to really alter expectations for the Riksbank here - and we still have the August print ahead of the September policy decision.
  • After falling below yesterday's range ahead of the data, EURSEK has moved from around 11.7600 to 11.783 at the time of writing - well below yesterday's high of 11.8882.

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