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Equity Bounce Works Against Greenback & Haven FX

FOREX
  • Currency markets were the follower rather than the leader Friday, with the sharp bounce off the week's lows in equity markets helping fuel cross-asset risk sentiment. This resulted in the e-mini S&P topping out at new alltime highs as traders watch incoming earnings reports due next week.
  • Global equity strength worked against the greenback, with the USD index off around 0.5% from the week's highs. Haven currencies also partially reversed the week's strength, with USD/JPY back above Y110 and EUR/CHF back above 1.0850. The conviction behind these recoveries could be key going forward, as market focus shifts to the US CPI report on Wednesday.
  • The recovery rally in GBP/USD looked relatively one-way until the WMR fix, which saw the pair come under sharp selling pressure, with close to £700mln notional in futures contracts changing hands inside 5 minutes. The heavy volume knocked the rate off 1.3877 to trade either side of 1.3850.
  • US, UK and German inflation data takes focus in the coming week, as well as the beginning of Q3 US earnings season and a raft of Chinese GDP, retail sales and industrial production data. Rates decisions from the Canadian, Turkish, Japanese and South Korean central banks also cross.
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