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(U2) Solid Bounce Into the Close


Bullish Price Structure


Clears Key Support


Retracement Mode


Oil Supply Constraints Trump Lower Demand


Pullback Considered Corrective

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After a firmer open, stocks trading mildly weaker -- with buying of session lows around midday. With S&P eminis trading -21.75 (-0.48%) at 4508.75 -- ESM2 holding above key support of 4440.90 50-day EMA.
  • A clear break of this average would be seen as a bearish development with the next key support at 4320.25 Low Mar 17. Dow currently trades -85.59 (-0.25%) at 34589.31, and Nasdaq -64 (-0.4%) at 14156.02.
  • No obvious headline driver for support evaporating around midmorning except perhaps crude prices bouncing off lows after Thu's sell-off on record SPR release (1M bbl/day) by US. WTI still sub-$100/bbl at 99.35 around midday.
  • New month/quarter underway -- early risk on as month-end rebalance buying in Tsys evaporated. March jobs data in-line (+431k w/Feb uprevised to +750k). Note, while Tsys are off lows, broad based yield inversion (recession signal despite recent Fed talk) has spread w/ 2s10s falling to -6.512 inverted low.
  • SPX leading/lagging sectors: Real Estate (+.96%) followed by Energy sector (+0.33%) lead by energy equipment and services. Laggers: Industrials (-1.4) weighed down air freight, road and rail sectors.
  • Dow Industrials Leaders/Laggers: Visa strong (V) +3.78 at 225.55 while Home Depot (HD) bounces slightly (+1.28 at 300.61) after weeks of selling pushed it to lowest levels since Mar 2021.Caterpillar (CAT -3.29 at 219.53, while Boeing (BA) declines 2.07 to 189.43.
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 |
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 |

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