Erdoğan Best Placed For Run-Off Win With Parliament Majority Assured

With the almost-complete results from the first round of the presidential election pointing towards a run-off between incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Nation Alliance candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, it is Erdoğan who will go into the 28 May contest more confident of securing a third term in office

• The People's Alliance of nationalist parties that includes Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) looks to have also secured a majority in the Grand National Assembly. Andoulou Agency reports the AKP as winning 266 seats with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) on 50 seats, giving the alliance at least 316 of the 600 seats in the GNA.
• Retaining a majority in the GNA and only being a fraction of a percent off of winning outright in the first round will give Erdoğan's campaign significant momentum over the coming two weeks. Meanwhile a lacklustre result for the opposition will do significant damage to Kılıçdaroğlu's efforts to convince voters to make him president in the face of an opposition-held parliament.
• The strong likelihood of an Erdoğan presidential win and the AKP-led alliance's retention of a parliamentary majority sees the second-placed scenario fromMNI's Turkey Election Previewset to come to fruition:
  • "A win for the status quo would likely see broad policy continuity on the economic, domestic, and foreign policy fronts. A pre-election manifesto from Erdoğan’s AKP offered little in terms of concrete policy indications, beyond broad statements promising the installation of ‘a strong economy team’, a commitment to reducing inflation to single digits and unemployment to 7%."