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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Data from Smarkets shows President Recep Tayyip Erdogan narrowing the gap on main opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu according to political bettors. Kilicdaroglu has an implied probability of 56.5% of winning the election to Erdogan's 46.3% (a total that sums to more than 100% due to bookies' profit). This has narrowed from a 62.1% to 40% gap recorded on 24 March.
- Latest opinion polling shows Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of the broad 'Nation Alliance', holding a slender lead over Erdogan in first round polling ahead of the 14 May vote. In the event that the contest goes to a second round run-off Kilicdaroglu has led in seven of the eight polls conducted since his announcement as a presidential candidate.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Turkish Presidential Election, % (Kilicdaroglu=Red, Erdogan=Gold)
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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