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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Party opinion polling ahead of the June 2023 general election shows President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's right-wing Justice and Development Party (AKP) retaining a consistent lead over the main opposition centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP). However, the AKP's support levels are well down on those recorded in the 2018 election, and could signal a difficult road to re-election for the incumbent seeking his third consecutive term.
- The average of polling for the parliamentary election carried out in October and November so far has the AKP on 32.2%, the CHP on 26.6%, the centre-right Kemalist Good Party (IYI) on 13.8%, the Kurdish-interest People's Democratic Party (HDP) on 9.6%, and the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) on 7.2%.
- In the 2018 election, the AKP secured 42.6% of the vote in the parliamentary election, while Erdogan was re-elected in the first round of the presidential election having won over 50% of the vote.
- While the opposition remains disjointed, Turkey's difficult economic conditions combined with rising antipathy from some sections of voters towards Erdogan's perceived erosion of the country's secular institutions raises the likelihood that Erdogan will not win election in the first round and could be defeated in a run-off.
Chart 1. Turkey 2023 Parliamentary Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Multiple domestic polling agencies, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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