Erdogan States 14 May Will Be Date For General Election

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has re-stated that the country's presidential and legislative elections will take place on 14 May, a month earlier than they needed to be. The outcome is one of the most uncertain in Turkish democratic history.

• Turkey's economic situation of high inflation and pressure on household finances would usually make the incumbent vulnerable.
• However, a pre-election public spending spree, a spat with Sweden over the potential extradition of Kurdish dissidents, and a divided and disorganised opposition could allow Erdogan to claim a third term in office.
• As noted in this morning's bullet (see 0818GMT EM bullet), the main opposition parties are set to meet on 26 January to discuss a joint presidential candidate. Agreeing on a joint figure that also has the support of the Kurdish minority interest People's Democratic Party seen as crucial if the opposition has any chance of ousting Erdogan.