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Essity (ESSITY; Baa1, BBB+; S) New Financial Targets

CONSUMER STAPLES

In Q1 earnings it firmly rejected any link between bondholder demands for EoD trigger/par call & returns to shareholders. Still, hard not to interpret today's announcement as a reiteration of mgmt.'s already firm belief EoD was not triggered, no firm view from us to fight bondholders.

  • New targets include annual organic sales growth>3% (technically unch from prev. >5% which included 2% from acquisitions). Adj. EBITA margin >15% (prev. >13.5%).
  • SEK 3b (~€270m) buyback initiated, financed from operating cash flows post. dividends. Its guiding to continuing buybacks into the future. It has a "stable & rising" dividend policy, it did SEK5.1b (€450m) last year.
  • Reminder Essity is facing Bondholders claiming event of default (demanding a par call) after its divestment of a SEK19b stake in Vinda late last year.
  • Company has been firm its legal advice says otherwise, pointing to Vinda stake not meeting the >10% turnover OR total asset requirement (it sees ~8.5% on sales). It also added license agreements it has with Vinda as buffering that legal position.
  • We would exercise caution for shorts, mgmt added in 1Q earnings "we have not received any formal requirement for accelerated payments."
  • Mgmt has increased available credit facilities from €2b/SEK22b to €5.9b/SEK66b.

Press conference at 8am London; https://essity.videosync.fi/2024-06-17

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