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Estimates Of Costs Of Canada’s Federal Workers Strike

CANADA
  • BMO: Those expected to be on the picket line account for almost 0.6% of the country's workforce. By definition, this will cut a roughly similar amount from the recorded output as long as it carries on. This unfortunate development is yet another shining example of why higher inflation is a bad thing for an economy.
  • Scotia: A back-of-the-envelope approach could say that for every day that one-third of the Federal workforce remains off the job and assuming a proportionate effect on Federal government spending, the hit to government spending would be about $200M. A one-month strike, for example, would reduce quarterly NGDP by 0.2 ppts, a growth hit of around 0.8% q/q SAAR, or potentially nearer 1% GDP after multipliers. In reality, spending is very unlikely to be proportionate to each and every job in the civil service and in the case of the workers behind this strike the impact is likely well under this ceiling.
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