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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CEE
The Estonian election, taking place on Sunday 5 March, sits on a knife-edge as Prime Minister Kaja Kallas' governing coalition is not certain to retain its majority in the 101-member Riigikogu (parliament). Should Kallas' centre-right liberal Reform Party not be involved in the next gov't, a shift towards more gov't spending would be probable as would a drop off in Estonia's vocal support for Ukraine.
- The main threat to Reform would be an unwieldy but potential coalition between the two parties vying for second place, the right-wing nationalist Conservative People's Party (EKRE) and the agrarian populist Centre Party (EK). The Centre Party has historically picked up votes from Estonia's Russian-speaking minority and supported closer links with Moscow. However, it has reined in this stance significantly since the invasion of Ukraine and now advocates for continued support for Kyiv (alienating some of its support base).
- The EKRE also advocates continued backing for Kyiv, but has taken a tougher line on accepting Ukrainian refugees. Party head Martin Helme has made the case that reduced spending on refugees and immigrants can boost welfare spending (those on lower incomes and retirees are key voter bases for the EKRE).
- Reform currently governs with the centre-left Social Democrats (SDE) and centre-right Isamaa (Fatherland). This coalition could fall short of a majority, but the liberal centrist Estonia 200 (E200) could prove a viable alternative partner. In this scenario we would expect to see broad policy continuity on spending and Tallinn's stance on the war.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Norstat, Turu-uuringute, Kantar Emor, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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