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ESTONIA-No Confidence Vote Looms For PM (1/2)


Earlier, the conservative Isamaa (Fatherland) party confirmed that it had begun conversations with other opposition parties with the aim of bringing a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and her gov't. In Estonia, the support of 21 lawmakers in the 101-member Riigikogu (parliament) is required to initiate a vote of no confidence. Currently, no single opposition party has that number of seats, meaning cross-party cooperation will be required.

  • A vote is likely, and it comes at a difficult time for Kallas. The PM's tripartite gov't holds a comfortable majority, with 60 seats in total among her liberal conservative Reform Party, the centrist Eesti 200 (Estonia 200, E200), and the centre-left Social Democrats (SDE). However, polling support for the governing parties is plummeting and E200 is in the process of electing a new leader, with one of the candidates actively supporting the party's withdrawal from gov't.
  • The two polls carried out in Nov have Reform averaging 17.4%, and E200 on 5.1%. This is down from 31.2% for Reform and 13.3% for E200 in the 5 March general election. For Reform, a scandal involving Kallas' husband continuing to hold a stakein a firm that maintained operations in Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent EU sanctions has hit support. For E200, many supporters have abandoned the upstart party after it went into coalition with Reform, seen as a party of the establishment. The 16.7% support garnered for Reform in the 6 Nov Norstat poll was the lowest recorded by the party since June 2015.
Chart 1. Estonia General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Norstat, Kantor Emor, Turu-uuringute AS, MNI

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