Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas' centre-right liberal Reform Party leads in opinion polls ahead of the 5 March legislative elections but a decline in support for her two coalition partners means that a new governing alliance is set to be required to form a majority administration after the election. The current Kallas gov't, formed by Reform, the centre-left Social Democrats (SDE) and the centre-right Isamaa (Fatherland) Party has proved one of the most hawkish in the EU towards Russia in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, with concerns among some that Estonia's sizeable Russophone minority could be used as a pretext for Moscow to launch attacks on the Baltic state.
- Polls show Reform with 28-32% support in February, having won 28.9% of the vote in the 2019 election. The right-wing nationalist Conservative People's Party (EKRE) sits second on 21-23%, but its level of support has been falling steadily in recent weeks. The populist Centre Party, which garners most of the vote from Estonia's ethnic Russian community, is third on 18-21% support and has made notable gains in recent months.
- Reform could find it easier to form a gov't with the SDE, Isamaa, and the liberal centrist Estonia 200 (E200) party. E200 does not currently have representation in the 101-member Riigikogu (parliament), but is polling between 8-10% support and could emerge as the fourth-largest party. If this gov't is formed, it would likely maintain Tallinn's continued vocal support for Ukraine and hard-line sanctions on Russia.
Source: Norstat, Turu-uuringute AS, Kantar Emor, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.