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EMISSIONS: EU ETS2 Price Expect To Double by 2030 Amid Supply Deficit

EMISSIONS
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The EU ETS2 price is forecasted to jump from €60/ton CO2e to €149/ton CO2e, between 2027 and 2030, more than doubling within three years amid a sharp reduction allowance supplies and strong demand due to the lack of economical decarbonization options, according to BNEF.

  • The market is expected to have a supply deficit for most years until 2035, with the deficit hitting the highest level in 2029, at 248mn ton CO2e.
  • During 2027-2030, if the ETS2 price exceeds €45 or rises too rapidly, additional allowances may be released from the ETS2 market MSR, according to the EU Commission.
  • However, the inflow of extra supply from the MSR will not be enough to contain prices in the short term, BNEF forecasts.
  • Allowances between EU ETS and ETS2 are not interchangeable.
  • EU ETS2 will cover emissions from fuel combustion in buildings, road transport and additional sectors that are not covered by the existing EU ETS.
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The EU ETS2 price is forecasted to jump from €60/ton CO2e to €149/ton CO2e, between 2027 and 2030, more than doubling within three years amid a sharp reduction allowance supplies and strong demand due to the lack of economical decarbonization options, according to BNEF.

  • The market is expected to have a supply deficit for most years until 2035, with the deficit hitting the highest level in 2029, at 248mn ton CO2e.
  • During 2027-2030, if the ETS2 price exceeds €45 or rises too rapidly, additional allowances may be released from the ETS2 market MSR, according to the EU Commission.
  • However, the inflow of extra supply from the MSR will not be enough to contain prices in the short term, BNEF forecasts.
  • Allowances between EU ETS and ETS2 are not interchangeable.
  • EU ETS2 will cover emissions from fuel combustion in buildings, road transport and additional sectors that are not covered by the existing EU ETS.