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EU Gas Demand Overview [PART 2.]: Looking Ahead

NATURAL GAS

Looking ahead, European Gas demand destruction is expected to persist next year.

  • ING Think assumes that EU natural gas consumption will remain 15% below the five-year average until end-March. After which demand is expected to be 10% below the 2017-2021 average.
  • BofA expects European industrial gas demand du remain weak in 2024 as many industries are exiting the continent permanently due to a lack of price elasticity and insecurities about future gas supplies, following the halt of most of the Russian gas pipeline flows.
  • Bloomberg estimates that EU gas demand for power generation could be limited in 2024 due to sustained hydro output, improving nuclear availability and a rising share of renewables generation. The 14-17% decline expected in 2023 is likely to be extended into 2024.
  • European power demand is also likely to remain below pre-energy crisis levels for at least another two years according to Moody’s. Aggregated demand across Germany, France, the UK, the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and the Nordic countries is only expected to surpass 2017 levels by 2026.
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