EU LNG Supplies at 21 Month Low But Could Increase this Week

LNG supply to Europe and Turkey fell to the lowest in 21 months in September although last week supplies increased 2% on the week according to Montel citing Kpler data.

• LNG delivery is expected to reach a four-month high this week of 2.9bcm although the final destinations, timing and volumes could change.
• LNG sendout to Europe was at 267mcm/d on 30 Sep and roughly in line with the average seen over the last couple of weeks according to Bloomberg.
• Global floating storage has surged above the previous five year range in the last week up to 3.982m mt according to Bloomberg. Kpler data shows volumes also at the highest level this year at 2.1bcm with more than a third floating around Europe.
• Near term TTF prices have pulled back over 6% today and below 40€/MWh amid the ongoing mild start to October limiting the early heating season demand while gas storage is over 95% full. Asian LNG prices have also tracked European prices lower as Europe trades at a discount of between 1-2$/mmbtu for the remainder of winter.
• Spot buying from Japan and South Korea ahead of winter is supporting Asia demand according to ANZ bank although China’s Golden Week holiday could limit demand according to Bloomberg.
  • TTF NOV 23 down -6.7% at 39.07€/MWh
  • NBP NOV 23 down -7.2% at 97.82p/th
  • JKM Nov 23 down -13.3% at 12.88$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Nov 23 down -2$/mmbtu at 0.81$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas NOV 23 down -2.2% at 2.87$/mmbtu