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EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: EU ETS Extends Gains

EMISSIONS
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The December 2025 EUA contract has extended gains towards the end of the mid-day from the morning session as TTF prices remained in green. Temperatures in NW Europe are anticipated to begin cooling from 1 January to reach as low as 0C on 5 January – increasing demand. Wind output, specifically, in Germany is expected to remain firm over 2-3 January but will be lower next week – which may raise the call for thermal generation.

  • EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 72.92 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1.7% at 48.695 EUR/MWh
  • The December 2025 EUA reached as high as €73.62/t CO2e at 11:25 GMT and has been as low as €71.90/t CO2e earlier in the session. The contract has averaged around €72.82/t CO2e so far in the session.
  • The contract could be weighed down next week, with EUA auctions set to restart on 7 January 2025 - increasing supply.
  • TTF is trading just below the high of the day of €49.2/MWh as Ukraine transit gas flows dip slightly ahead of the expected halt to the pipeline supplies tomorrow.  The forecast for colder weather later this week is adding extra support.
  • Germany and France's day-ahead power prices dropped significantly compared to the previous session, driven by a sharp increase in wind generation across both regions. Germany experienced 14 hours of negative power prices, while France recorded none. Although Germany maintained a discount over France, it narrowed on the day due to additional pressure from lower demand in France, further contributing to the price drop.
  • EdF has extended its planned maintenance at its 910MW Gravelines 3 to 8 January 2025 from 4 January.
  • EdF has extended the outage at its 1.33GW Flamanville 2 nuke to 1 January 2025 from 31 December 2024.
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The December 2025 EUA contract has extended gains towards the end of the mid-day from the morning session as TTF prices remained in green. Temperatures in NW Europe are anticipated to begin cooling from 1 January to reach as low as 0C on 5 January – increasing demand. Wind output, specifically, in Germany is expected to remain firm over 2-3 January but will be lower next week – which may raise the call for thermal generation.

  • EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 72.92 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1.7% at 48.695 EUR/MWh
  • The December 2025 EUA reached as high as €73.62/t CO2e at 11:25 GMT and has been as low as €71.90/t CO2e earlier in the session. The contract has averaged around €72.82/t CO2e so far in the session.
  • The contract could be weighed down next week, with EUA auctions set to restart on 7 January 2025 - increasing supply.
  • TTF is trading just below the high of the day of €49.2/MWh as Ukraine transit gas flows dip slightly ahead of the expected halt to the pipeline supplies tomorrow.  The forecast for colder weather later this week is adding extra support.
  • Germany and France's day-ahead power prices dropped significantly compared to the previous session, driven by a sharp increase in wind generation across both regions. Germany experienced 14 hours of negative power prices, while France recorded none. Although Germany maintained a discount over France, it narrowed on the day due to additional pressure from lower demand in France, further contributing to the price drop.
  • EdF has extended its planned maintenance at its 910MW Gravelines 3 to 8 January 2025 from 4 January.
  • EdF has extended the outage at its 1.33GW Flamanville 2 nuke to 1 January 2025 from 31 December 2024.