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EU Storage Ending Winter Above Normal after First Net Injection

NATGAS

Europe is set to end the winter season with natural gas storage well above the previous five year range after mild weather and strong growth in renewables has kept European demand muted over the season. Front month TTF prices have found some support since late February but are still around half of the high seen in October.

  • European gas storage was at 59.18% full on Mar. 24 according to GIE compared to the seasonal five year average of 41.6%.
  • The daily storage change showed the first net injections of the year on Mar. 23 of 224GWm/d but returned to a small net withdrawal the following day.
  • Net storage withdrawals have averaged 6.7% below normal in the week to Mar. 24 and around 19% below normal over the winter season since the start of October. Average withdrawal rates were 775GWh/d last week compared to the previous five year average of about 831GWh/d.
  • Storage in Germany is at 167.7Wh (65.8% full), Italy at 113.9TWh (57.8%), Netherlands at 76.9TWh (53.9%), Austria at 73.2TWh (74.7%) and France at 50.7TWh (37.8%).
  • Europe is expected to reach near capacity storage levels at the end of summer 2024 even if North Asia sees hotter than normal temperatures according to BNEF. The base case sees storage at 97% before next winter.
    • TTF APR 24 down 2.3% at 27.85€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down 2.1% at 28.06€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 1.7% at 32.05€/MWh


Source: GIE / Bloomberg

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