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EU/UK Relations and ECB Dominate the Newsflow

BOND SUMMARY

Core bonds are a bit higher this morning (although at writing starting to reverse some of the rally). The highlights of the day surround the ECB and Brexit developments.

  • Chief Brexit negotiators Barnier and Frost are due to meet today and there has been little indication that negotiations have been anything resembling successful so far. Cabinet Officer Mihcael Gove and EC counterpart Maros Sefovic are due to meet today to hold "informal talks" ahead of a formal emergency meeting following the publication of the UK's Internal Markets bill. Developments will be closely watched.
  • For the ECB, a fairly uneventful meeting is expected with the highlights being discussion of the currency and also any hints as to the future of the ECB's own framework review following the Fed's shift to Average Inflation Targeting (AIT).
  • TY1 futures are up 0-2+ today at 139-12 with 10y UST yields down -1.3bp at 0.689% and 2y yields down -0.2bp at 0.146%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.05 today at 173.73 with 10y Bund yields down -0.3bp at -0.467% and Schatz yields down -0.1bp at -0.699%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.10 today at 136.00 with 10y yields down -0.7bp at 0.229% and 2y yields down -0.5bp at -0.93%.
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