EUCO Pres' Run To Become MEP Could Give Hungary Further Influence In H224

Over the weekend, European Council President Charles Michel confirmed that he will run as lead candidate for the Belgian liberal Reformist Movement (MR) in the upcoming European Parliament (EP) elections, leaving the presidency vacant in the very likely scenario he wins a seat. When the European Council presidency is vacant, the member state leader holding the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union takes over as chair of European Council summits. With Michel likely to take his seat in the European Parliament in July, this would leave Hungary (CoEU president in H224) in a position to have PM Viktor Orban sit as interim EUCO president.

• Given Hungary's obstructionist stance towards aid provision to Ukraine, and long-standing concerns in Brussels about rule-of-law issues in Hungary, Orban sitting as the key broker at EU summits is unlikely to be a desirable scenario for many in the EU.
• Lengthy negotiations usually follow EP elections (taking place 6-9 June) between the main political groups in parliament with regards to distribution of major EU offices. However, Michel's likely departure in July rather than when his term ends in Dec could force groups to come up with a plan for succession before the elections, plans that could be scuppered by unexpected EP election results.