Free Trial

Euibor futures lead after French inflation

STIR FUTURES

STIR futures are on the front foot this morning. The moves were originally driven by European traders interpretting the fall in oil prices amid the potential drawdown from the US Stategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). However, the release of French HICP data which was high, but only maringally higher than economists consensus saw markets take another leg higher - markets had priced an even higher print following the 1.0ppt and 1.4ppt upside surprises to German and Spanish inflation yesterday.

  • This has seen Euribor futures leading the way today with Reds up to 9 ticks higher on the day. September remains fully priced for a 25bp hike but market pricing for October has fallen back to 43bp from a high of 50bp yesterday shortly after the Spanish and initial German state CPIs.
  • SONIA futures have seen a smaller rise on the day. Whites up to 2.5 ticks higher, Reds 3.0-3.5 ticks higher, Greens and Blues 4.0-5.0 ticks higher. Markets continue to price 31bp for May, 58bp for June, 108bp by September (4 meetings) and 137bp by year end (6 meetings).
  • The Eurodollar strip is generally up 5.5-6.0 ticks throughout. Markets now price 43bp for May (25bp fully priced with 70% probability of a 50bp hike), 152bp by September (4 meetings) and 198bp by year-end (6 meetings).

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.