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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessEUR CPI Weighs, Recent Ranges Intact
Spill over pressure from EGBs has been seen in gilts, with firmer-than-expected national European and then Eurozone-wide CPI data dominating headline flow.
- Futures have extended their pullback from yesterday’s failure at 96.00 as a result, last printing -9 at 95.70, a little above session lows of 95.62.
- Bears remain in technical control, with initial support seen at Wednesday’s low (95.33). Bulls need to overcome Wednesday’s high (96.43) to start turning the technical backdrop a little more in their favour.
- Cash gilt yields are 1.5-3.0bp higher, with 10s under the most pressure and the recent curve steepening theme intact.
- A reminder that the release of the DMO’s quarterly issuance calendar had little tangible market impact, as it failed to provide any meaningful surprises.
- SONIA futures are at/just off worst levels, although stick to narrow ranges, last flat to -1.5.
- The scope of the recent hawkish adjustment in both EUR & BoE-dated STIRs is probably limiting reaction here, with ~30bp of ’24 BoE cuts still priced into dated OIS markets.
- Cross-market spill over will be eyed for the remainder of Friday, with continued adjustments to the Eurozone inflation data and this afternoon’s U.S. PCE prints set to dominate.
- Gilt month-end extensions are not seen as meaningful but may provide some modest background support later in the day.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-24 | 5.198 | -0.2 |
Aug-24 | 5.122 | -7.8 |
Sep-24 | 5.069 | -13.1 |
Nov-24 | 4.961 | -23.9 |
Dec-24 | 4.901 | -29.9 |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
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