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EUR Fades Off Highs as Regional CPIs Slow Faster Than Forecast

FOREX
  • EUR/USD trades in decent volumes to pull lower off another higher high overnight. Today's reversal off the best levels is - at present - no risk to the broader uptrend after yesterday's break and show above 1.10. The Waller-inspired rally helped trigger a fifth session of higher highs overnight, and today's move lower is likely corrective in nature. This has kept the RSI from erring into overbought territory.
  • EUR futures volumes sit around 50% ahead of average for this time of day - thanks to a sharp spike in activity that coincided with the soft Spanish CPI print.
  • Largely due to the waning EUR, the USD Index is in positive territory, and a close at current or higher levels would prompt the first daily close in the green since Thursday last week. Despite the recovery off the November low, the USD Index remains in a short-term corrective cycle lower, with the 200-dma still a way above at 103.601.
  • NZD is the firmest currency across G10, after the RBNZ rate decision kept headline policy unchanged, but signaled strongly that further hikes will follow in 2024 should CPI remain stubbornly high in the interim. NZD/USD is off the overnight high of 0.6208, but the uptrend remains intact. Further strength would open 0.6274 ahead.
  • Prelim German CPI data takes focus later today, with regional CPI prints so far this morning supportive of consensus that looks for headline to slow to -0.1% from 0.0% and 3.5% from 3.8% Y/Y. US trade balance and secondary US GDP data is set to follow, as well as appearances from Fed's Mester, BoE's Bailey & Hauser.
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