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EUR Grinds Lower, AUD To Five-Month High Ahead Of RBA

FOREX
  • The single currency underperformed its G10 counterparts on Monday as markets assess the impact of additional Russian sanctions and the lack of any meaningful breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations surrounding the war.
  • EURUSD price action remained slow but directional as the pair extends its pullback from last week’s highs of 1.1185, grinding back through the 1.10 mark to print fresh lows of 1.0966. The pair has narrowed the gap with last week’s low at 1.0945, a key short-term support to watch. The dollar index extends its winning streak to three days, rising another 0.44% on Monday.
  • Perhaps more significant are the moves witnessed in Euro crosses with EURAUD (-1.32%) and EURNZD (-1.18%) both resuming the sharp downtrends witnessed across February and March. EURAUD in particular is sitting right on fresh cycle lows around 1.4535 as the Australian dollar receives a boost from the uptick in commodity indices as well as the buoyancy of global equity benchmarks.
  • Additionally, AUDUSD saw some interest headed into the WMR fix, which helped the pair clear last week's peak at 0.7540, then briefly matching the 0.7556 key resistance point (late Oct 2021 high).
  • The April RBA meeting/decision is the highlight overnight. Despite markets expecting policy to remain unchanged, focus will quickly move to the Bank’s guidance paragraph, with the board likely to reaffirm that it is “prepared to be patient as it monitors how the various factors affecting inflation in Australia evolve”.
  • Tomorrow’s US docket will be headlined by ISM Services PMI data ahead of Wednesday’s release of the FOMC minutes.
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