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EUR/HUF Extends Higher Following ECB

HUNGARY
EUR/HUF has extended its gains following the ECB rate decision and now trades ~1.5% in the green. Both the Fed and ECB have tilted hawkish, weighing on HUF optimism with the carry profile likely to be slowly eroded going forward with another cut to the NBH’s 17% effective rate expected next week.
  • Despite the bounce, trend conditions in EUR/HUF remain technically bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. However, the cross has breached the 50-day EMA, suggesting scope for an extension higher. The next key resistance is at 378.79, the May 19 high.
  • Also worth noting that European natural gas prices have spiked on a report that the Netherlands is set to permanently shut down Europe’s biggest gas field - Hungary is largely dependent on Russian energy exports and HUF has often tracked changes in gas prices since the invasion of Ukraine last year, so this could be bolstering the move.
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