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EUR/HUF Tests 350 Level Ahead of NBH Meeting, +30bp Hike Expected on Elevated CPI

HUNGARY
  • EUR/HUF opens -0.08% lower this morning, broadly in line with firmer risk sentiment out of the APAC session.
  • Focus remains on the NBH for continued policy tightening to the tune of +30bp this week – which ahs been keeping HUF firm in recent weeks vs its CEE peers.
  • Although the recent deceleration in inflation in July (4.6% vs 4.8% exp & 5.3% prior) could have given policymakers some room for manoeuvre (smaller rate hikes), CPI inflation is still standing significantly higher than the NBH 4-percent upper tolerance band – necessitating the +30bp move.
  • This should continue to support HUF vs the EUR & PLN as the policy divergence strategy continues to play out.
  • EUR/HUF saw some early choppiness after testing the 350 handle, but has stabilised and continues to maintain its downside bias with the RSI still short of oversold territory at 33.72.
  • Intraday Sup1: 349.61, Sup2: 348.99, Res1: 350.77, Res2: 351.48
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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