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EUR/HUF Trend Conditions Still Bearish Despite Bounce From Tuesday Lows

HUNGARY
With few domestic drivers for the Forint this week, EURHUF price action has remained fairly contained, and despite the firm bounce from the Tuesday lows, the pair sits around 0.4% higher on the week. Overall, trend conditions remain technically bearish and attention is still on key support at 367.59 – the June 12 low and bear trigger.
  • Hungary’s domestic yield curve has steeped today - yields on 2Y HGBs have extended 6bps lower to print a fresh cycle low while 15Ys deal 10bps higher at their highest levels of the week.
  • Next week we have a much busier data schedule, with trade balance, manufacturing PMI, industrial production, retail sales and CPI data all on the docket. Economic activity has slowed significantly in all sectors while the disinflation process has picked up pace. A continuation of these trends will bolster the NBH’s case for a continuation of gradual easing at their next policy meeting (Jul 25).
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