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EUR Looks Through EZ CPI Uptick as ECB Pricing Fades

FOREX
  • EUR trades lower headed into the NY crossover, with markets shrugging higher-than-expected headline inflation reads from France, Italy and the Eurozone aggregate to re-focus on slowing pace of core inflation, which edged to 5.3% from 5.5%.
  • ECB pricing for the September meeting continues to fade, with markets pricing a 1/3 chance of a 25bps hike. ECB's Holzmann summarised the current governing council view, stating the August inflation data is a "conundrum for the ECB".
  • The JPY trades well, rising against all others in G10, keeping the pair within range of yesterday's lows of 145.56, a break below which would open 144.54 for direction.
  • Scandi currencies underperform, with the NOK softer alongside SEK as the Norges Bank up the pace of daily FX purchases for September to NOK 1.1bln from NOK 1.0bln previously. The purchases are nominally to help the government finance the central government deficit, but markets remain wary of the activities despite their market neutral approach.
  • Weekly jobless claims data comes and the July personal income/spending release comes ahead of the MNI Chicago PMI, which markets expect to rise to 44.2 from 42.8 previously.
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