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EUR Making Furtive Progress Among Crosses

FOREX
  • The greenback is softer ahead of the NY crossover, although the USD Index is yet to test the Wednesday post-CPI lows. For EUR/USD, this keeps the pair below 1.0350, but strength through yesterday's 1.0368 and a close above would mark a bullish signal and could see the pair break out of the YTD downtrend channel drawn off the February high. The upper-end of this channel crosses at 1.0344 today.
  • In contrast to yesterday morning's price action, the EUR is making progress in the crosses, and is stronger against all others in G10. This sees a small part of yesterday's EUR/JPY losses erased, with the cross needing to take out 138.40 before resuming the bounce posted off the late July low.
  • Equity markets are generally firmer, extending the post-CPI strength as traders watch the waning expectations for a 75bps rate hike from the Fed in September. This points to another positive open on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 trading at the best levels since early May.
  • With the CPI event risk now out of the way, implied vols across G10 FX are generally taking a step lower, with EUR/USD 1m implied dropping below 8.5 points and nearing the lowest levels in two months.
  • Markets get another insight into the US inflation picture later today, with the PPI release for July expected to show another moderation in prices (down from 1.1% to 0.2% on a M/M final demand basis). Markets also watch the weekly US jobless claims data and the Banxico rate decision.
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