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- Bunds ended ~10bps richer across the curve after finding a bid in the NYCB-driven equity weakness in the PM while ECB-dated OIS contracts now price 152bps of rate cuts through 2024, up from 140bps before the morning's inflation data. Bund ASW and BTP spreads also widened on the day.
- Main/XO closed +2/+9.7bps wider, tracing CDX moves on risk-off sentiment driven by CRE concerns in NYCB’s earnings. €IG/€HY widened by 2bp/7bp, with short-end spreads (+3bp) and energy bonds (+4.5bp) underperforming with €IG. Primary markets weren’t too busy though still saw two covered issuers, two €HY issuers, an auto dealer (Volvo) and a T2 bank bond (BBVA) – see details below.
- SXXP ended flat after retreating around 0.4% from the US open with Real Estate +1% on the rate cut sentiment while Autos and Utilities rallied by similar amounts. Retail dropped by 2.3% with sentiment weighed-upon by the H&M miss.
- Overnight the Fed kept policy unchanged as expected, as Powell sounded optimistic on inflation while also pushing back against March cut expectations. Asia equities are mostly lower though regional PMI prints have helped some local markets. SXXP futures are -0.3% DoD.
- Up today we have:
Time C Event
08:15 SP HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI
08:45 IT HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI
08:50 FR HCOB France Manufacturing PMI
08:55 GE HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI
09:00 EC HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
09:00 IT Istat Released the New 2024 Consumer Price Index Weights
09:15 EC ECB's Centeno
09:30 UK S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI
10:00 EC CPI
10:00 IT CPI
11:30 EC ECB's Lane
12:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate
12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts
12:30 UK Bank of England Governor press conference
13:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls, Jobless/Continuing Claims, Labor Costs
14:00 UK DMP 3M Output Price and 1yr CPI Expectations
14:45 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
15:00 US Construction Spending
15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI
17:00 IT New Car Registrations
Curncy | Bond Type | Issuer | Exp Rating | Rank | Ticker | B'mark | Amount (bn) | Spread (bp) | Δ IPT (bp) | BBG NIC (bp) | Cover (x) |
EUR | Banks (T2) | BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARG | BBB- | Subordinated | BBVASM 4 7/8 02/08/36 | MS | 1.25 | 240 | 35 | N/A | 4.2 |
EUR | Autos | VOLVO TREASURY AB | A | Sr Unsecured | VLVY 3 1/8 09/08/26 | MS | 0.80 | 50 | 33 | 0.2 | 3.3 |
EUR | Autos | VOLVO TREASURY AB | A | Sr Unsecured | VLVY 3 1/8 02/08/29 | MS | 0.50 | 67 | 36 | 13.8 | 4.3 |
EUR | Auto Parts | AUTOLIV INC | NR | Sr Unsecured | ALV 3 5/8 08/07/29 | MS | 0.50 | 115 | 45 | N/A | 5.9 |
EUR | Covered (Banking) | ACHMEA BANK NV | NR | Secured | ACHMEA 3 02/07/34 | MS | 0.50 | 47 | 8 | 3.2 | 5.7 |
EUR | Covered (Banking) | BERLIN HYP AG | NR | Secured | BHH 2 3/4 05/07/27 | MS | 0.50 | 14 | 7 | 0.1 | 6.4 |
EUR | Retail | GOLDSTORY SASU | B | Secured | THOEUR Float 02/01/30 | FRN | 0.35 | 400 | 38 | N/A | N/A |
EUR | Retail | GOLDSTORY SASU | B | Secured | THOEUR 6 3/4 02/01/30 | B | 0.50 | 463 | 50 | N/A | N/A |
Grand Total | 4.90 | 175 | 31 | 4.3 | 5.0 |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.