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  • EGBs opened wider and moved broadly sideways through to NFP with slightly-firmer-than expected European CPI data, the continued burden of, local digestion of the FOMC decision and some marginally hawkish comments Herodotou feeding in.
  • Rates moved cheaper again on the better-than-expected job gains in January (+353k vs 185k est, prior up-revised to 333k from 216k) for 2y/10y bunds to end +12bp/+9bp as rate cut expectations for the year moved to 125bps with 17bps priced for April.
  • Main/XO closed has 2bp/8bp tighter and ends the week 1bp/7bp wider. €IG cash tightened 2.2bp with Financials outperforming Corps by ~0.5bp and as shortest-dates spreads extended their outperformance (1-3yr spreads -3bp to bring YTD tightening to -10.5bp). Energy, Media and Tobacco bonds all performed well on the day, tightening by 4-5bps.
  • SXXP ended flat, having opened wider and sold-off over the PM session despite the buoyant sentiment in SPX equities, with Energy the notable underperformer at -1.4% while Autos and Banks ended >1% higher.
  • UST yields have come off overnight highs to trade 4-5bps cheaper out to 10yr after Powell's comments on 60 minutes implied a rate cut won’t be coming until later in the year. CSI 300 is +1.1% after the regulator pledged support over the weekend and take measures against risks of stock pledges. SXXP futures are flat DoD.
  • Up today we have:

Time C Event

07:00 GE Trade Data

07:00 UK ONS to publish LFS-based data for Sept. to Nov. 2023

08:15 SP HCOB Spain Services & Composite PMI

08:45 IT HCOB Italy Services & Composite PMI

08:50 FR HCOB France Services & Composite PMI

08:55 GE HCOB Germany Services & Composite PMI

09:00 EC HCOB Eurozone Services & Composite PMI

09:00 UK New Car Registrations

09:30 UK Official Reserves Changes

09:30 EC Sentix Investor Confidence

09:30 UK S&P Global UK Services & Composite PMI

10:00 EC PPI

10:00 EC OECD Publishes Interim Economic Outlook

14:45 US S&P Global US Services & Composite PMI

15:00 US ISM Services Index

15:00 US Fed's Goolsbee Appears on Bloomberg Television

17:30 UK BOE's Huw Pill

19:00 US Fed's Bostic Gives Welcoming Remarks

19:00 US Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

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