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EUR Market Wrap

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  • Bunds ended 5-6bps tighter across the curve against slow headline flow. Below-consensus Spanish inflation data moved EGBs from intraday highs before a steady grind richer over much of the PM on order related flow.
  • Main/XO closed -0.5bp/-2.5bp while €IG/€HY cash closed -1bp/+5bp with 1-3yr spreads outperforming by just under 1bp (now -30bp YTD vs. -13bp for +10yr spreads). €IG Energy underperformed at flat though is still the best YTD performer at -24bp.
  • SXXP closed +0.1% with Retail and T&L expanding on their over and under-performance over the session respectively to close +2.5% and -2.3%. Retail is now the best MoM performer at +13%. T&L is the second worst MoM performer at -2.7% (after Personal Care & Grocery at -4.5%).
  • HK and China equities are higher today, with tech names surging to be the top-performing sector. There is a raft of corporate earnings due out today, following on from a busy day on Wednesday including property names like China Vanke and Country Garden. Stoxx 50 futures are +0.3%. Up today we have:

GMT/Local

Impact

Country

Event

0700/0700

***

UK

GDP Second Estimate

0700/0700

*

UK

Quarterly current account balance

0700/0800

**

DE

Retail Sales

0700/0800

**

SE

Retail Sales

0800/0900

**

CH

KOF Economic Barometer

0855/0955

**

DE

Unemployment

0900/1000

**

EU

M3

0900/1000

**

IT

ISTAT Business Confidence

0900/1000

**

IT

ISTAT Consumer Confidence

1100/1200

**

IT

PPI

1230/0830

***

US

Jobless Claims

1230/0830

**

US

WASDE Weekly Import/Export

1230/0830

***

CA

Gross Domestic Product by Industry

1230/0830

*

CA

Payroll employment

1230/0830

***

US

GDP

1345/0945

***

US

MNI Chicago PMI

1400/1000

**

US

NAR Pending Home Sales

1400/1000

**

US

U. Mich. Survey of Consumers

1430/1030

**

US

Natural Gas Stocks

1500/1100

**

US

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

1530/1130

**

US

US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result

1530/1130

*

US

US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result

1600/1200

**

US

USDA GrainStock - NASS

1600/1200

***

US

USDA PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS - NASS

2330/0830

**

JP

Tokyo CPI

2330/0830

*

JP

Labor Force Survey

2350/0850

*

JP

Retail Sales (p)

2350/0850

**

JP

Industrial Production

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