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EUR Market Wrap

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  • 2y/10y bunds closed -3bp/-5bp after tightening at the open on the RNZB decision and catching up with USTs. Modestly hawkish comments from the BOE’s Pill failed to impact much with 40bps of ECB cuts still priced through the remainder of ’24 and 19bps of easing priced through the September meeting.
  • Main/XO ended -1bp/-4bp at 53bp/290bp while €IG/€HY was +1bp/+3bp – all IG sectors wider and Energy continuing to underperform though is joined by Utilities in the wider MoM space (+1.2bp and +0.4bp MoM respectively vs. -2bp for €IG).
  • SXXP closed +0.9% while SPX was +1%. Notable €IG movers included Aroundtown +7%, Albemarle +7%, Cemex SAB-CPO +7%, Air Lease Corp -4%.
  • SX5E futures are +0.2% while SPX futures are flat. Later the Fed’s Bostic and Musalem speak. The focus will be on US June CPI though, which is expected to show a moderation in headline to 3.1% but with core holding at 3.4% (https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65159/USCPIP...). There are also US real June earnings and jobless claims, plus UK May GDP, trade and IP.

GMT/Local

Impact

Country

Event

0600/0700

**

UK

UK Monthly GDP

0600/0700

**

UK

Trade Balance

0600/0700

**

UK

Index of Services

0600/0700

***

UK

Index of Production

0600/0700

**

UK

Output in the Construction Industry

0600/0800

***

DE

HICP (f)

0900/1000

**

UK

Gilt Outright Auction Result

1230/0830

***

US

Jobless Claims

1230/0830

**

US

WASDE Weekly Import/Export

1230/0830

***

US

CPI

1430/1030

**

US

Natural Gas Stocks

1515/1115

US

Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic

1530/1130

**

US

US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result

1530/1130

*

US

US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result

1700/1300

US

St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem

1700/1300

***

US

US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond

1800/1400

**

US

Treasury Budget

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