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EUR/PLN Edges Lower With 4.60 In Sight

PLN

EUR/PLN trades on a heavier footing and last deals -85 pips at 4.6064, approaching the upper boundary of the 4.40-4.60 range outlined by government officials as optimal for the Polish economy. From a technical perspective, a breach of Sep 8 low of 4.5951 would support the case for a continued sell-off. On the flip side, bulls keep an eye on Sep 12 high/round figure/61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2023 downleg at 4.6971/4.7000/4.7072.

  • Moody's are due to review Poland's sovereign rating after hours today but it is unlikely that we will see any changes today. Millennium Bank wrote that in their assessment "the risk of a downward revision due to deteriorating fiscal prospects has slightly increased, but any potential changes will not happen at least until spring 2024".
  • POLGB yields are slightly lower across the curve, while FRA contracts have stabiilised. The WIG20 Index sits marginally higher on the day.
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