NORGES: RATES PROBABLY AT CURRENT LEVEL QUITE SOME TIME

RATES MAY NEED TO BE ON HOLD LONGER THAN ENVISIONED: NORGES

MNI: NORGES BANK LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 4.50%

MNI WATCH: CNB Seen Cutting 50Bps to 5.25%, Signal Slower Pace

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 30

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Tackling Risks In Real Estate, Debts

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 605; OIL RIGS 499; GAS RIGS 102

BoE Data Watch

RBA Data Watch

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

EUR STIRs Stabilise Alongside Bunds, A Little Over 65bp Of '24 ECB Cuts Priced

STIR
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Euribor futures trade either side of unchanged, -0.5 to +2.0, with the uptick in Bunds allowing EUR STIRs to move away from yesterday’s cycle extremes.

  • ECB-dated OIS shows ~20.5bp of cuts for the June meeting, or a little over 80% odds of a 25bp move.
  • Further out, ~66.5bp of cuts are priced through year end.
  • Thursday saw the ever-dovish Panetta stress the need for rate cuts, playing down worry re: decoupling from the Fed. This wasn’t a market mover and didn’t provide any shocks given his historical stance.
  • The inflation components of the ECB’s consumer expectations survey will be eyed later today.
  • Elsewhere, ECB-speak from de Guindos & Centeno is due. The former may not touch on monetary policy, while the latter is a well-known dove and has provided comments in recent days. That means that those appearances are unlikely to have a drastic impact on the monetary policy outlook.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.704-20.5
Jul-243.615-29.5
Sep-243.456-45.3
Oct-243.374-53.5
Dec-243.243-66.6
178 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Euribor futures trade either side of unchanged, -0.5 to +2.0, with the uptick in Bunds allowing EUR STIRs to move away from yesterday’s cycle extremes.

  • ECB-dated OIS shows ~20.5bp of cuts for the June meeting, or a little over 80% odds of a 25bp move.
  • Further out, ~66.5bp of cuts are priced through year end.
  • Thursday saw the ever-dovish Panetta stress the need for rate cuts, playing down worry re: decoupling from the Fed. This wasn’t a market mover and didn’t provide any shocks given his historical stance.
  • The inflation components of the ECB’s consumer expectations survey will be eyed later today.
  • Elsewhere, ECB-speak from de Guindos & Centeno is due. The former may not touch on monetary policy, while the latter is a well-known dove and has provided comments in recent days. That means that those appearances are unlikely to have a drastic impact on the monetary policy outlook.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.704-20.5
Jul-243.615-29.5
Sep-243.456-45.3
Oct-243.374-53.5
Dec-243.243-66.6