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EUR STIRs Stabilise Alongside Bunds, A Little Over 65bp Of '24 ECB Cuts Priced

STIR

Euribor futures trade either side of unchanged, -0.5 to +2.0, with the uptick in Bunds allowing EUR STIRs to move away from yesterday’s cycle extremes.

  • ECB-dated OIS shows ~20.5bp of cuts for the June meeting, or a little over 80% odds of a 25bp move.
  • Further out, ~66.5bp of cuts are priced through year end.
  • Thursday saw the ever-dovish Panetta stress the need for rate cuts, playing down worry re: decoupling from the Fed. This wasn’t a market mover and didn’t provide any shocks given his historical stance.
  • The inflation components of the ECB’s consumer expectations survey will be eyed later today.
  • Elsewhere, ECB-speak from de Guindos & Centeno is due. The former may not touch on monetary policy, while the latter is a well-known dove and has provided comments in recent days. That means that those appearances are unlikely to have a drastic impact on the monetary policy outlook.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.704-20.5
Jul-243.615-29.5
Sep-243.456-45.3
Oct-243.374-53.5
Dec-243.243-66.6
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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