MNI Global Week Ahead - Inflation Data From UK, Canada, Japan
MNI (LONDON) - See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
TUESDAY - Canada October Inflation
The October CPI report will be the only set of inflation readings between the Bank of Canada's October and December meetings. With markets currently evenly split between a 25bp or 50bp cut in December (following the widely expect 50bp cut in October), there will still be focus on the inflation outcomes even with core and underlying metrics tracking within the BOC's 1-3% target band. Early Bloomberg consensus sees headline inflation rising three tenths to 1.9% Y/Y, while there is not yet a consensus for the underlying measures at the time of writing. However, we continue to suspect that labour and GDP data will ultimately drive the decision between a 25bp or 50bp cut on Dec 12, especially after the Aug final/Sep advance GDP and October labour force survey each came in slightly mixed.
WEDNESDAY - UK October Inflation
UK CPI for October is due for release on Wednesday. The early Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI at 2.2%Y/Y (BOE at 2.18%, prior 1.68%Y/Y). The expected move higher in headline CPI is largely driven by utilities prices with the consumer “price cap” rising around 9.5% in the month. Consensus expects the more important services CPI to print at 4.8%Y/Y in October (BOE at 4.98%, prior 4.94%Y/Y). The biggest contributor to the downside surprise to services CPI in September was air fares (which are always volatile), and in our view pose upside risks to both the consensus and BOE forecasts for October.
THURSDAY - Japan October Inflation
The market looks for reasonably steady y/y inflation outcomes for the National CPI outcome Oct. This should leave us a little above the 2% target level. Headline measures are projected to ease a little but the core ex fresh food, energy measure is forecast to firm. BoJ focus will be domestically generated services inflation, though speculation around a December hike may be more contingent on the yen's trajectory.
FRIDAY - Eurozone Flash November PMIs
The November flash PMIs could be influenced by recent political developments in both the US and Germany. However, current Bloomberg consensus sees relatively little changes to both manufacturing and services sentiment, with the former expected to remain firmly in contractionary territory at 46.1 and the latter expected at 51.6. The composite PMI is seen hovering at the neutral 50.0 level for the second consecutive month. The Republican sweep in the US election has increased tariff-related growth concerns in the Eurozone, prompting a notable dovish repricing in ECB-dated OIS (there are 145bps of cuts now priced through December 2025 versus 117bps before the election result). Commentary around these risks will most likely be centred amongst manufacturers. Meanwhile, the collapse of the German "traffic light coalition" has increased uncertainty in Europe's largest economy, which may also spillover into the French and Eurozone-wide prints.
Emerging Markets
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.5%, with the sharp sell-off in HUF since the start of October likely to prompt a hawkish shift in central bank communication as well. Indeed, many analysts have pushed back rate cut calls having previously coalesced around the idea of a 25bp easing step at the December meeting.
WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)
Bank Indonesia meets on November 20 and it is a close call if it will follow the September 25bp rate cut with another after pausing in October. On the one hand the Fed is 75bp into its easing cycle and so the rate differential allows BI to ease again. Also inflation is well within the target corridor with headline heading towards the bottom but core turning up again. On the other hand, FX stability remains BI's focus and USDIDR is up 2.3% since the October 16 meeting. While there has been USD appreciation since the US election, USDIDR has been trending higher since soon after BI's October meeting. The 0.5% increase in the IDR NEER though may be enough for BI to cut rates again in November.
THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
The CBRT is expected to keep its one-week repo rate on hold at 50% with monthly CPI readings consistently showing above 2%. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent comments, where he linked the projected deceleration in inflation to an easing in borrowing costs, could mean a cut at the December meeting is on the cards given that markets expect the gradual decline in headline inflation to continue through to year-end.
THURSDAY - SARB Decision (South Africa)
The SARB will likely deliver the second back-to-back 25bp cut after starting its easing cycle in September. The CPI report, that will be released the day before the meeting, is expected to show that headline inflation eased further in October, approaching the lower end of the SARB's target range, which would support the case for looser monetary policy.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
16/11/2024 | 1115/1215 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at Trilateral Commission meeting | |
16/11/2024 | 1300/1400 | EU | ECB's Schnabel speech at Chicago Booth Conference | |
16/11/2024 | 1655/1155 | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | |
18/11/2024 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Machinery orders |
18/11/2024 | 0815/0915 | EU | ECB's De Guindos speech at 27th Euro Finance Week | |
18/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Trade Balance |
18/11/2024 | 1300/1400 | EU | ECB's Lane lecture on Inflation Expectations | |
18/11/2024 | 1315/0815 | ** | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
18/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
18/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
18/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
18/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
18/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
18/11/2024 | 1830/1930 | EU | ECB's Lagarde on economic and human challenges | |
18/11/2024 | 1830/1830 | GB | BOE's Greene Fireside Chat On The Future of Inflation | |
18/11/2024 | 2100/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
19/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | AU | RBA Minutes | |
19/11/2024 | 0845/0945 | EU | ECB's Elderson at 10th Green Finance Forum | |
19/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
19/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (f) |
19/11/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
19/11/2024 | 1000/1000 | GB | BOE's Bailey, Lombardelli, Mann and Taylor at TSC | |
19/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | CPI |
19/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
19/11/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
19/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
19/11/2024 | 1810/1310 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
20/11/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Trade |
20/11/2024 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
20/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | PPI |
20/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Consumer inflation report |
20/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Producer Prices |
20/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Construction Production |
20/11/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
20/11/2024 | 1300/1400 | EU | ECB's Lagarde address on financial stability | |
20/11/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
20/11/2024 | 1600/1600 | GB | BOE's Ramsden speech on monetary policy | |
20/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
20/11/2024 | 1800/1900 | EU | ECB's De Guindos speech on financial stability | |
20/11/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
20/11/2024 | 2100/1600 | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | |
21/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
21/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | NO | Norway GDP |
21/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
21/11/2024 | 0830/0930 | EU | ECB's Cipollone at ECRB meeting | |
21/11/2024 | 1100/0600 | *** | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
21/11/2024 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
21/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
21/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
21/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
21/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
21/11/2024 | 1345/0845 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
21/11/2024 | 1400/1400 | GB | BOE Mann fireside chat with Brown Brothers Harriman | |
21/11/2024 | 1500/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
21/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
21/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Services Revenues |
21/11/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
21/11/2024 | 1530/1630 | EU | ECB's Lane in panel on macroeconomic effects of geopolitical uncertainty | |
21/11/2024 | 1530/1630 | EU | ECB's Elderson at the University of Cyprus | |
21/11/2024 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
21/11/2024 | 1730/1230 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
21/11/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
22/11/2024 | 2200/0900 | *** | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
22/11/2024 | 2330/0830 | *** | JP | CPI |
22/11/2024 | 0001/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
22/11/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
22/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | DE | GDP (f) |
22/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
22/11/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
22/11/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
22/11/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
22/11/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
22/11/2024 | 0830/0930 | EU | ECB's Lagarde on Europe and New World Order | |
22/11/2024 | 0840/0940 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at Foro Observatorio Económico | |
22/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
22/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
22/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
22/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
22/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
22/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
22/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
22/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
22/11/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
22/11/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
22/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
22/11/2024 | 1545/1645 | EU | ECB's Schnabel in panel on MonPol |