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EUR/USD At New Cycle Lows

FOREX
  • The greenback trades solidly early Friday, extending the week's outperformance to put EUR/USD at fresh multi-year lows of 1.1121. The rally is somewhat more contained relative to the price action earlier in the week, so the short-term trajectory will likely depend on the NY crossover and the digestion of personal income/spending and PCE deflator figures.
  • The strong-dollar theme is also playing out against the AUD, pressing the pair closer to major support at the early December 2021 lows at 0.6993. The price action works against a market that's continuing to price in an extended tightening cycle this year, with over 4 rate hikes priced in before end-2022.
  • Scandi currencies have also been a focus, with a raft of mixed data working against both the NOK and SEK in early trade. There has been a glut of data across the region, particularly in Sweden this morning. GDP data and unemployment data were stronger than expected while retail sales that was released simultaneously was weak. The deterioration in the economic tendency survey helped SEK start to weaken. In Norway, retail sales also disappointed with the unemployment rate a bit better than expected.
  • There are no major central bank speakers due Friday, with markets still awaiting the first post-press conference communications from the Fed - although the next scheduled appearance is Daly on Jan31.
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