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Free AccessEUR/USD Little Changed Overnight
EUR/USD is essentially flat at ~$1.1835 ahead of European trade. This comes after bulls managed to benefit from the ADP-driven downtick in the broader USD on Wednesday, although the rate remains within the confines of the recently observed range.
- In terms of local news flow, Wednesday saw focus fall on ECB commentary, with Bundesbank chief Weidmann reiterating his well-defined hawkish views re: inflationary dynamics. Elsewhere, governing council member Stournaras highlighted his belief that the jump in inflation will be transitory, while he stressed that the trajectory of wage growth is not yet following inflation. We also heard from governing council member Vasle who underscored the idea that the central bank is not "ignorant" to the risks of high inflation. Data releases saw a miss for German retail sales and a pretty much in line with flash estimate final reading for the Eurozone manufacturing PMI survey.
- Our technical analyst notes that Wednesday's push above $1.1845 extends the current recovery for EUR/USD, with any sustained hold above the 50-day EMA ($1.1827 today) set to improve the footing of bulls. Bulls initially target yesterday's high ($1.1857). If they force a break there, focus will shift to the July 30 high and key resistance ($1.1909). Conversely, the Aug 27 low ($1.1735) provides the most meaningful level of initial support.
- There isn't anything to be aware of in terms of notable FX option expiries come today's 10AM NY cut. Meanwhile, tomorrow's cut will see the following expiries: $1.1865-85 (EUR1.5bn)
- Thursday's local docket is pretty thin, with Eurozone PPI data due.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.