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EUR/USD Struggles to Regain $1.1900

EUR
MNI (London)
  • EUR/USD touched an extended low of $1.1874 in early NY trade Friday but managed to recover back above $1.1900 in post fix trade, ending the week at $1.1905.
  • The replacement of the Turkish central bank governor late Friday prompted early activity in TRY crosses, the spike higher in USD/TRY saw EUR/USD marked down to $1.1879 at the Asia open, extended Friday's low to $1.1872 (76.4% $1.1836-1.1990) before EM markets settled down (dip buyers noted emerging in TRY), which allowed EUR/USD to edge its way back to $1.1900, just about closing the gap to Friday's close.
  • Support remains at $1.1872/69 ahead of the 200-dma at $1.1857 and the YTD low at $1.1836 (Mar09 low). Resistance now seen at $1.1900 ahead of $1.1920/25 and Friday's high at $1.1937.
  • FT reported that leading economists are cutting EZ growth forecasts based on third wave COVID infections which are forcing renewed lock downs in several European countries, market awaits outcome of Merkel's meeting with Germany state leaders.
  • ECB Current Account 0900GMT. ECB speakers include Villeroy 1000GMT, Weidmann 1300GMT, Schnabel 1515GMT, de Cos 1530GMT.
  • US Chicago Fed Nat Activity 1230GMT, Existing Home Sales 1400GMT.
  • Fed Powell(dove)speaks at 1300GMT, seen as main focus. Fed Barkin 1400GMT, Daly(dove) 1700GMT, Quarles (1730GMT)Bowman 2315GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD is trading closer to recent lows. The sell-off Thursday / Friday resulted in a break of support at 1.1883, Mar 16 low. This strengthens a short-term bearish theme and exposes key support at 1.1836, Mar 9 low. Note, the 200-day MA lies just above at 1.1854. A break of 1.1836 and of the MA, would confirm a resumption of this year's downtrend and open 1.1800. Key resistance remains 1.1990, Mar 11 high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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