MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, July 3

MNI BRIEF:BOJ Q1 Output Gap Hits 16th Negative Reading In Row

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1312 Weds; -0.34% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY248 Bln Via OMO Weds; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1312 WEDS VS 7.1291

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -2.6% SA THRU JUN 28 WK

US MBA: REFIS -2% SA; PURCH INDEX -3% SA THRU JUNE 28 WK

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 1/3/6-Month UKTB Auction on Friday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Key Stats Of Interest (1/2): Older Workers Leaving Workforce

US DATA
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A few other statistics of interest in the Employment Report:

  • The U-6 underemployment gauge was steady at 7.4% (same as April), still representing an uptick from earlier in the year (Dec '23 was 7.1%) and the joint-highest since November 2021, mirroring the overall unemployment rate.
  • The employment-to-population ratio (Household survey) dipped to 60.1% from 60.2% prior - unrounded, that's the lowest unrounded figure since 59.9% in Nov 2022, with the labor force falling by 250k (biggest drop since Dec '23).
  • Employment among the foreign-born rose 414k to 30.896m (though still below the Mar'24 high of 31.114m). with the number of native-born employed down 663k to 130.445m. Vs May 2023, those totals represent +637k (foreign) vs -229k (native-born).
  • Amid the dip in 55+ labor market participation (0.2pp to 38.2%) which drove the overall unexpected dip in May: it was in turn driven by a drop in Male 55+ participation to 43.4% (43.7% prior), with female participation -0.1pp to 33.6%. That's the lowest 55+ male participation rate seen since 2005 - which will act as a constraint on labor supply, which may concern the FOMC.

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A few other statistics of interest in the Employment Report:

  • The U-6 underemployment gauge was steady at 7.4% (same as April), still representing an uptick from earlier in the year (Dec '23 was 7.1%) and the joint-highest since November 2021, mirroring the overall unemployment rate.
  • The employment-to-population ratio (Household survey) dipped to 60.1% from 60.2% prior - unrounded, that's the lowest unrounded figure since 59.9% in Nov 2022, with the labor force falling by 250k (biggest drop since Dec '23).
  • Employment among the foreign-born rose 414k to 30.896m (though still below the Mar'24 high of 31.114m). with the number of native-born employed down 663k to 130.445m. Vs May 2023, those totals represent +637k (foreign) vs -229k (native-born).
  • Amid the dip in 55+ labor market participation (0.2pp to 38.2%) which drove the overall unexpected dip in May: it was in turn driven by a drop in Male 55+ participation to 43.4% (43.7% prior), with female participation -0.1pp to 33.6%. That's the lowest 55+ male participation rate seen since 2005 - which will act as a constraint on labor supply, which may concern the FOMC.