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EURHUF On the Front Foot Following Disappointing Hungary IP Print

HUNGARY
EURHUF (+0.10%) has partially reversed some of yesterday’s losses as a moderately weaker euro and a lower-than-expected Hungarian industrial production print provide headwind to the forint, seeing the currency second to only the South African rand as the weakest in the EMEA basket - which underperforms following a miss in GDP data.
  • Technical trend conditions remain bearish with the focus on 370.82, the 1.382 projection of the Oct 13 - Nov 10 - Dec 12 price swing. Initial resistance is at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 381.15.
  • The Budapest Stock Index sits 1.60% lower, a notable outlier compared to its regional peers. Banking, pharmaceutical and energy sector companies extend their decline following the recent announcement that windfall taxes on the said sectors will be extended into 2023.
  • The disappointing -3.2% y/y industrial production print follows a similarly worrying 4.5% yearly fall in retail sales recorded yesterday, with the economy already confirmed to have fallen into a recession last week.
  • CPI data is on the docket tomorrow (Est: 25.4% y/y, Prior: 25.7% y/y). The central bank kept the key and effective rates unchanged at its latest meeting on the premise that inflation is likely to remain at its peak for some time before disinflation accelerates in Q2. Therefore, a softer inflation print, in addition to the worrying activity data, may alleviate pressure to keep rates restrictive.
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