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EURHUF Pares Earlier Gains as GDP Figures Beat Market Consensus

HUNGARY
EURHUF has pared earlier gains and now trades close to flat on the day, in-line with the recovery in the EUR and equities at the beginning of the European session. In addition to the broader market moves supporting HUF, Hungary’s GDP figures beat market consensus but recorded a third consecutive quarter of contraction, signaling a deeper recession and potentially bolstering the case for policy easing at the upcoming NBH meeting.
  • EURHUF technical trend conditions remain bearish with the cross having traded to fresh cycle low of 368.33 yesterday. Attention is still the bear trigger at 369.47, the Apr 18 low, a clear break of which is needed to resume the primary downtrend and open 366.41, the Mar 30 2022 low.
  • Hungary’s domestic yield curve trades between 6-7bps lower today, with 10Y yields notably at their lowest levels since early February. In contrast to the recovery in regional equity indices, the Budapest Stock Index trades 0.10% in the red, underperforming its CEE peers as pharmaceutical performance drives the index lower.
  • Looking ahead, there are no major economic releases scheduled for the remainder of the week. Focus turns now to the NBH rate decision next Tuesday, with today’s GDP data potentially bolstering expectations among sell-side of a cut to the O/N deposit rate of 18%.
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