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EURHUF Remains Bearish, Targeting 377.15 Feb 14 Low

HUNGARY
  • HUF sits higher against peers in the CEEMEA space, although EM FX trades generally higher after the poor US durable goods and Dallas Fed data prompted a minor paring of recent Fed rate hike pricing.
  • This extends the EURHUF carry returns for 2023 to close to 8.5% - outpacing regional peers ahead of the NBH rate decision tomorrow.
  • Rates are widely expected to be held at 13.0% after Deputy Governor Virag hawkishly called for a “patient” approach to tackling inflation earlier this month. See full MNI Preview including sell-side analyst views here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/51592/MNINBH...
  • While most EMEA equity indices point upward today, the Budapest Stock Index is a notable outlier, sitting 0.70% lower after Cabinet Minister Gulyas confirmed that Hungary will maintain windfall taxes in 2023 for the banking, energy and pharmaceutical sectors. Gulyas said that the businesses have benefited from higher energy prices and therefore must make a bigger contribution to the budget. Oil and gas company Mol Nyrt and pharmaceutical company Richter are notable underperformers today.
  • Technically, EURHUF trend conditions remain bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and price maintains a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 377.15, the Feb 14 low. A break of this bear trigger would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 376.06, the 1.236 projection of the Oct 13 - Nov 10 - Dec 12 price swing. The 1.382 projection lies at 370.82. Initial resistance is at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 385.08.
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