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EURHUF Ticks Higher Following NBH Decision

HUNGARY
  • The NBH hiked its 1W depo rate by 50bps to 5.85% this morning to ease the selling pressure on HUF after last week’s dramatic depreciation.
  • Even though the central bank was supposed to reduce the frequency of hikes in the 1W depo rate to monthly steps, policymakers mentioned at several occasion that the NBH will not hesitate to intervene via the 1W depo facility if HUF weakens dramatically.
  • Consensus was expecting a 65bps hike; however, the slight ‘improvement’ in the Russia/Ukraine conflict following Zelensky comment on NATO led to a sharp retracement in CEE currencies this week and therefore ‘ease’ the pressure on NBH policymakers to hike too aggressively.
  • EURHUF is trending higher following the release as market was slightly ‘disappointed’, with the pair surging back above the 380 level following the decision.
    • Next short term resistance on EURHUF stands at 385.
    • However, support for the HUF (and CEE currencies) could continue if market optimism gradually 'recovers' in the near term.
    • ST support to watch on the downside stands at 375.50; key level remains at 370.

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