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EURHUF Trading Below Yesterday’s Highs as Markets Await EU Commission Update

HUF
EURHUF trades close to this week’s highs after a hotter than expected inflation print and fuel price cap scrap led to a +1.80% rally yesterday, raising concerns of higher than anticipated inflationary pressure heading into 2023. Markets await the potential release of an updated assessment on Hungary’s progress to meet rule of law demands in response to a request by some EU member states earlier this week. Timing of such an assessment remains unknown.
  • EURHUF resistance is located at 416.03, the Oct 24 high. This level was pierced yesterday, though a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery and open 420.00 and above. On the downside, initial support to watch is unchanged at 404.39, the Nov 23 low. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and expose support at 398.30, the Nov 10 low.
  • The Budapest Stock Exchange Index sits 1.20% higher on the day and is outperforming its CEE peers (Czech Prague SE: -0.03%, Poland WIG: +0.04%). While the index is comfortably above yesterday’s week lows, price action remains ~4% off November’s cycle highs. Bond yields trade 10-13bps higher, sitting at their highest levels since mid-November across the curve.

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