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STIR: Euribor Futures Drifting Lower, Within Yesterday's Ranges

STIR
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Euribor futures are -0.5 to +2.0 ticks through the blues, drifting away from session highs over the last 90 minutes. Markets are awaiting a potential announcement from US President Trump on reciprocal tariffs, while assessing the fallout of his call with Putin on the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

  • ECB-dated OIS are up to 1.5bps more hawkish through 2025, currently pricing 77bps of cuts through year-end. This is down from 78bps at yesterday’s close and 83bps at the end of Tuesday (largely a function of yesterday's US CPI report).
  • Overnight, Bundesbank President Nagel warned against cutting rates too hastily as rates approach neutral. He cited Bundesbank estimates of 1.80-2.50%, wider (and higher) than the heavily caveated 1.75-2.25% range presented by the ECB last week.
  • Cipollone (0840GMT) and Nagel (1700GMT) are scheduled to speak today. Today’s regional data calendar includes December industrial production. Consensus expects -0.6% M/M (vs 0.2% prior), but MNI’s tracking points to downside risks. 
Meeting DateESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-252.429-23.6
Apr-252.267-39.8
Jun-252.098-56.8
Jul-252.035-63.0
Sep-251.958-70.7
Oct-251.936-72.9
Dec-251.897-76.8
Feb-261.898-76.7
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. 
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Euribor futures are -0.5 to +2.0 ticks through the blues, drifting away from session highs over the last 90 minutes. Markets are awaiting a potential announcement from US President Trump on reciprocal tariffs, while assessing the fallout of his call with Putin on the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

  • ECB-dated OIS are up to 1.5bps more hawkish through 2025, currently pricing 77bps of cuts through year-end. This is down from 78bps at yesterday’s close and 83bps at the end of Tuesday (largely a function of yesterday's US CPI report).
  • Overnight, Bundesbank President Nagel warned against cutting rates too hastily as rates approach neutral. He cited Bundesbank estimates of 1.80-2.50%, wider (and higher) than the heavily caveated 1.75-2.25% range presented by the ECB last week.
  • Cipollone (0840GMT) and Nagel (1700GMT) are scheduled to speak today. Today’s regional data calendar includes December industrial production. Consensus expects -0.6% M/M (vs 0.2% prior), but MNI’s tracking points to downside risks. 
Meeting DateESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-252.429-23.6
Apr-252.267-39.8
Jun-252.098-56.8
Jul-252.035-63.0
Sep-251.958-70.7
Oct-251.936-72.9
Dec-251.897-76.8
Feb-261.898-76.7
Source: MNI/Bloomberg.