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EURIBOR: Futures Respect Key Resistance, ECB Cutting Path Looks Steep

EURIBOR
EurozoneBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

We have already noted that the current ECB market-implied rate path remains more aggressive than the once-per-quarter baseline held by at least several GC members.

  • Technical analysis on Euribor contracts adds to this idea.
  • ERH5 has respected it’s early August high so far, while late ’23/early ’24 highs have helped cap rallies further out the strip.

Fig. 1: Euribor Mar ’25 & Dec ’25 Contracts (ERH5 & ERZ5)

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We have already noted that the current ECB market-implied rate path remains more aggressive than the once-per-quarter baseline held by at least several GC members.

  • Technical analysis on Euribor contracts adds to this idea.
  • ERH5 has respected it’s early August high so far, while late ’23/early ’24 highs have helped cap rallies further out the strip.

Fig. 1: Euribor Mar ’25 & Dec ’25 Contracts (ERH5 & ERZ5)

Keep reading...Show less