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Euribor Strip A Touch Firmer; Q4 Negotiated Wages Highlight Today

STIR

The Euribor strip is flat to +1.5 tick through the blues, with core global FI markets off yesterday’s lows.

  • ECB implied rates have softened a touch overnight, with 106bps of rate cuts priced through the remainder of 2024 (vs 104bps late yesterday).
  • The release of the ECB's Q4 negotiated wages series will garner most of the interest today (1000GMT/1100CET). While more timely than the total compensation data within the national accounts, it is still a heavily lagged indicator.
  • Monday saw the release of January’s Indeed wage tracker data, a metric cited by the ECB as a more real-time indicator of wage pressures. The release signalled a slight uptick in the Eurozone 3mma Y/Y rate, to 3.9% Y/Y (vs 3.8% prior). We will provide further detail on this release in due course.
Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.903-0.7
Apr-243.808-10.2
Jun-243.604-30.6
Jul-243.422-48.8
Sep-243.212-69.8
Oct-243.039-87.1
Dec-242.854-105.6
Jan-252.706-120.4
Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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