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Euribor Strip Off Best Levels But Still Firmer Today; Flash PMIs Eyed In Europe

STIR

Euribor futures are -0.5 to +1.0 vs yesterday's settlement levels, a touch off highs of the day, alongside EGBs.

  • Digestion of the PBoC’s RRR cut will likely dominate the pre-PMI rounds of European trade.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts continue to price 130bps of cuts through 2024 ahead of tomorrow's policy decision.
  • Main focus in Europe today will be the January flash PMIs. Markets will be watchful of further evidence r.e. wage-led price pressures in the service sectors, and the potential for Red Sea-related disruptions to be reported amongst manufacturers.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jan-243.9070.50
Mar-243.871-3.1
Apr-243.752-15.0
Jun-243.466-43.6
Jul-243.225-67.7
Sep-242.978-92.5
Oct-242.789-111.3
Dec-242.600-130.2

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