Euribor Strip Softer vs Friday Settlement; ECB-Speak Eyed

The Euribor strip is off worst levels, last -0.5 to -3.0 through the blues, operating on limited volume to start the week. A light bid in core global FI has provided some recent support.

• The main focus this week will be whether ECB speakers make further attempts to push back on current rate cut pricing. ECB-dated OIS contracts currently price 157bps of rate cuts through 2024, still shy of dovish extremes seen last Wednesday (of 159bps).
• RTRS sources have suggested (https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ecb-go...) that “policymakers do not expect to change their message on the need for high interest rates before their March meeting, making any rate cut before June difficult.”
• Meanwhile, ECB’s Wunsch stuck to his typically hawkish leanings when speaking with the FT (https://www.ft.com/content/d113172b-f3a4-4526-aeb5...).
• Late Friday, Bundesbank's Nagel conceded that ECB rates had likely peaked, but did not entertain the idea of cuts. Meanwhile, Bank of Portugal's Centeno told MNI that talks on rate cut criteria and timing could be discussed at the next ECB meeting in January ( https://marketnews.com/mni-interview-ecb-could-dis...).
• Today sees ECB's Lane and Schnabel make appearances at an ECB conference on "Fiscal Policy and EMU Governance". Schnabel introduces Olivier Blanchard before his lecture on "Fiscal versus monetary policy as stabilization tools", while Lane chairs a panel on "New policy challenges and reform needs for the EMU".
• ECB's Vujcic and Wunsch also speak, while the German IFO survey highlights today's data calendar.