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Euribor Strip Twist Flattens; Makhlouf Echoes Friday ECB Speakers

STIR

The Euribor strip has moved away from overnight highs, with contracts -0.5 to +3.5 ticks through the blues.

  • The strip twist flattens.
  • Weekend headline flow was reasonably light.
  • ECB’s Makhlouf echoed the central view, noting high vigilance re: risks, with the Bank able to wait to ease policy to gain a clearer picture of the outlook.
  • Such comments have generally been used to push back on the idea of cuts as early as March/April
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 100bps of rate cuts through the remainder of 2024, with the first full 25bps cut still fully priced through the June meeting.
  • This morning features scheduled remarks from ECB's Vujcic and Stournaras, while Lagarde speaks in EU Parliament at 1600GMT/1700CET.
  • The European data calendar is relatively light.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.903-0.4
Apr-243.835-7.2
Jun-243.641-26.6
Jul-243.471-43.6
Sep-243.258-64.9
Oct-243.085-82.2
Dec-242.904-100.3
Jan-252.761-114.6
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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